The Oil Drum: Local

To steal a phrase “It is the best of times, it is the worst of times,” although the rest of the opening to A Tale of Two Cities (“It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair,”) may also be appropriate. It is also interesting, and will become more so as the new Administration seeks to find a way forward out of the compounding problems that now face it. The WSJ has noted the statements by President-elect Obama earlier:

On the campaign trail, Mr. Obama argued that spending $150 billion over the next decade to boost energy efficiency would help create five million jobs. The jobs would include insulation installers, to make houses more energy-efficient, wind-turbine builders, to displace coal-fired electricity, and construction workers, to build greener buildings and upgrade the electrical grid.

It goes on to note that if renewable energy is only brought on-line to displace conventional coal power, then the net job losses from existing industries may well offset the gains in wind power. That topic brought a discussion in comments a couple of days ago. It is, however, perhaps worth pursuing in a little more detail.

Based on recent posts like "Will the UK Face a Natural Gas Shortage this Winter?" and "ASPO comments regarding Spain", it looks like Europe will be looking for additional sources of LNG supplies in the next few years. The question is whether there will be sufficient supply available.

One source of supply that may not have been considered is LNG from Australia. Australia has begun developing its unconventional natural gas production, and may in fact be able to ramp up its exports in the next few years — if not to Europe, to other countries in need, freeing up LNG exports from elsewhere for Europe.

There had been persistent concerns that the east coast of Australia would suffer a shortfall of gas supplies as the Cooper Basin and Bass Strait natural gas fields declined, with the possibility of constructing a pipeline from Papua New Guinea to meet demand being considered. These fears have subsided in recent years as large quantities of coal seam gas (CSG) have been discovered. The new gas production has not only proved sufficient to offset declines elsewhere, but quantities are large enough to result in a rush to export surplus gas in the form of LNG.

In recent months we've seen a surge in the stock market valuations of coal seam gas producers, triggered by a bid by BG for Origin Energy - one of the major players in the sector - a few months ago. The bid eventually failed, with Origin instead choosing to partner with Conoco Phillips in a CSG to LNG development, with Conoco paying $US9.6 billion ($12 billion) for a half-share of Origin Energy's CSG assets.

BG's interest was triggered by a desire to locate new sources of gas for their LNG export markets, particularly in Singapore - and they are just one of a number of players interested in turning Australian CSG into LNG and exporting it to markets in Asia and elsewhere.

In this post I'll look at recent events in the industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future.

One of the considerable differences between the ongoing financial problems of the world, and the coming energy crisis lies in the nature of the commodity of concern. In the first case the problem focuses around money, though not really the physical and tangible cash that one uses less and less to pay for groceries, the rent, or the occasional book. The US has already transitioned to a point that more than half the time we use credit and debit cards to pay the bill. (The quote is from a year ago)

As debit card and credit card purchases become increasingly popular, check and cash payments continue to lose out. These traditional payment methods now account for less than half of all transactions, and a recent rule change by the Federal Reserve Board should tilt the balance even further away from paper transactions and toward plastic payments.

As a result, for the vast majority of us who do not keep our money in the mattress, financial solvency and insolvency is defined by electronic statements about the nature of our accounts, without there being a pile of gold sitting in the bank to define it. And, when the banks and other companies holding such accounts get into trouble, loans can and have been arranged for them, that are similarly electronic transactions, without large trucks pulling up at either Fort Knox, where 147.3 million ounces currently sit, or to the Federal Reserve Bank in New York, that holds about 216 million ounces. Rather the transactions occur electronically, and there is relatively little need for the physical presence of the cash.

Contrast that with the realities of an energy crisis. We cannot heat our homes with the promises of oil, or the electronic transfer of ownership of fragments of a tanker load making its way from Ras Tanura to the Gulf ports. We need the physical presence of the oil, natural gas or wood that we will consume. When we run out, we need to get some more.

Sometimes, I have to admit, when predictions are made, I can be just wrong. Asked, early in the summer as to the wisdom of buying winter supplies of heating oil in the North East, I suggested that there would be a likely continued rise in price, and that with distributors having problems, that an early securing of supplies would pay off. Well it is not happening. Recent stories have shown that the price of heating oil in Maine has fallen from $4.71 in July to $3.08 last week. The national average heating oil price as shown by the EIA is steadily falling.

In recent years, natural gas consumption in the United Kingdom has grown rapidly. At the same time, there has been an abrupt change in UK natural gas supplies, brought about by depletion and decline. In the first part of this two part series, I look at historical developments in EU and UK natural gas consumption, production and imports and the challenges posed by declining production.

In the second part of the series, I use a simulation approach to test the likely adequacy of natural gas supplies during the upcoming heating season. In these simulations, I use data from the UK Department of Business, Enterprise, and Regulatory Reform (BERR), UK National Grid, as well as information about recent UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) and Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) develpments. Based on what I refer to as the reference scenario, it seems likely that the UK will increasingly have to rely on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) imports to secure adequate supplies.

It gets depressing hearing about our financial problems every day. I am sure a lot of people would rather talk about oil and natural gas, and about better prospects for the future. Improved technology is one factor that might make future production better than the bleak future that most of us are foreseeing today. It might even reduce costs, so that more oil and gas can be produced at the lower prices we are seeing today.

What kinds of technology advances are you hearing about? Which ones really have promise? Which ones will not be hurt too badly by the financial crisis, and in fact, may help production in spite of the crisis?

To get people started, below the fold I quote paragraphs about technologies I have read about, mostly from articles in the Next Generation Oil & Gas Journal.

As people following our energy situation are aware, many if not most energy stocks are down 60-70% or more from their summer highs. In a bizarre but not completely surprising announcement after the close (we knew someone was liquidating), Chesapeake, (the US largest natural gas producer) CEO Aubrey McClendon has been involuntarily liquidated out of his rougly 30,000,000 remaining shares of CHK in the past 3 days due to margin calls. CHK, which in July was over $70 per share, hit as low as $11.99 today, and then had a 38% rally to close at $16.52 on 5 times normal volume. We don't typically comment on individual stocks or price movements on TOD but this and related NG stock developments could have a significant impact on the industry's future - CHK and XTO in addition to being top 2 gas producers also operate over 12% of our nat gas rigs. In addition to McClendons margin call, Chesapeake also announced further reductions in capex budgets going forward which means lower natural gas production, and thus higher prices, ceteris paribus. To make things more complicated, the majority of complicated financial hedges undertaken by CHK, are at Morgan Stanley, which fell to single digits today. This is all very good news for natural gas prices but bad news for both Aubrey McClendon and the North American energy situation.

This is the post where I try and draw my own conclusions from the Conference. And not recognizing many of the papers in this does not mean that they weren’t important, but rather that from my own perspective that this is what I got most from.

The recurrent word that cropped up, again and again, was Scale. It was an attempt by the speakers to try and convey to their audience the size of the problem that is coming at us, increasingly rapidly. That one word encapsulates the difference between those who talk of the world energy problem in Quads (quadrillion Btu’s), as opposed to those that talk of the solution in terms of kilowatts and Megawatts. (The handy Dashboard on my Mac tells me that a Megawatt is 56,869 Btus/min. A Quad is 1,000,000,000,000,000 Btu.) The current shortages of gasoline are largely brought about by a transient closure of refineries that affects around 1 mbd of oil supply. The time is not far distant when such shortages will become more regular as we compete for supply in a more competitive global market.

The tipping point that seemed still a comfortable distance away three years ago when the American ASPO meetings began in Denver, is now just about here. And the solutions that have been discussed do not approach, as yet, the millions of barrels a day (mbd) of fuel replacement that we may need before long. At the same time, to return to the theme of my own paper, we do not have the educated human resource that we need. Data from my Dean of Enrollment shows that ACT report national high school student interest in engineering was at 14% in 1982. By 1992 it had dropped to 9%. By 2005 it was down to 5%, and has fallen below that since.

The credit crunch is already having an impact on energy markets. New projects are harder to fund. Highly leveraged companies are sometimes finding it necessary to shed assets. Some players are finding themselves to be the indirect casualties of other players, like Lehman, that have already failed. Long term, we will probably see consolidation and lower production than would have been the case without the credit crunch. Of course, if there is a major recession, it is possible that we won't need as high production.

In this post, I have tried to bring together some of the impacts of the credit crunch on the energy industry that are already being felt. If you are seeing other impacts, please make note of them in the comments.

Note: This is an updated version of a post from earlier this week. Some more recent quotes have been added at the end of this post.

Despite recent optimistic news on new shale gas reserves, the totality of North American natural gas production remains on a treadmill, as the EROI reaper has relentlessly raised the marginal cost of producing- to currently above the price of natural gas futures. While shutting in production is not easy to do once wells are drilled, low prices with rising cost structures can put the crimp on future expansion. Chesapeake (CHK), the largest US natural gas producer and operator of land rigs, announced last evening they will be curtailing production, cutting their rig count and reducing capital expenditures. (Of course, it is possible that this is the first example of an energy production casualty due to the credit crisis if the reason for this capex drop is lack of easy funds...)

In recent years, each time Chesapeake Chairman Aubrey McClendon announces some production or capex decreases, it has marked a bottom in the commodity (see graphic below fold). As this will surely be followed with similar announcements by other E&Ps in the near future (I expect Sanridge Energy and Petrohawk Energy soon), there will soon be a drop in monthly gas production--perhaps as much as 5%.