The Oil Drum: Local

It is a beautiful day outside, one of the crisp days of Winter where it becomes a pleasant chore to restock the wood pile near the house. Soon we will begin to tidy up the yard, and Spring will be here and plans are already made for trips and travel through the summer. Somehow in this planning, even though we know of the problems that are coming with energy supply, it doesn’t factor much into the plans that are made. There is a complacency of thought that says that things will continue, much as they are, and certainly in the discussions from the political contenders there is little concern expressed for dramatic change in the security of supply, or even the volume of that supply, within the near term.

As I mentioned last week, I have been giving talks that include a component of the coming problem outside of the small circle of our campus and moving out to the service clubs, and the occasional larger conference gathering. I largely dwell on the problems of oil and gas supply and the inadequacy of our being able to make up shortfalls in these with solar and wind, or even ethanol, because of the scale of the problem and the nature of the coming liquid fuels shortages. The talks seem to go over quite well, I even get the odd request for copies – but I strongly suspect that the audience, in very large part, quickly moves their attention to the next item on the agenda, and that within a week the topic is far back in their memories. I mention this because in many ways I think my small experience mirrors to a degree what we see on a much larger scale when folk like Matt Simmons give the more detailed, and skilled presentations that he provides. There is no experience of significant personal impact that causes the problem to seem immediate to many of the audience.

In New York City, one of the heights of futility is sitting in traffic, no matter if you are in a car, a bus or a taxi. But this week, there is some hope that the tide is turning in reducing traffic congestion through basic incentives that make mass transit more attractive and driving or taxi riding more expensive. While they have not been touted as the start of a cohesive plan to turn the tide against traffic, they may in retrospect be seen as an opening act in taming NYC traffic.

As Enrique Penalosa stated at the Borough President's Transportation Forum, "Transportation policy today means how to reduce car use".

...on an annual basis, the cost of gasoline is nothing compared with the cost of capital depreciation on your car. Here are the numbers from AAA's latest survey of the annual costs of car ownership:

$3,392 -- depreciation
$1,425 -- gasoline (@ last year's 2.40 a gallon)
$926 -- insurance
$735 -- maintenance
$716 -- auto loan finance charges
$150 -- tires
$490 -- other
$7,834 -- total

Of course, there were problems, inconveniences, flared tempers, but let us focus on the good things that happened. Today New Yorkers everywhere showed their ability to adapt to changed circumstances. As my own way of giving thanks to all those who made the best of today, here's my 2005 transit strike thank you list: